Last time, we reviewed Justice Garman’s record in oral arguments in civil cases, both when she agreed with the majority and when she didn’t.  Today, we’re reviewing the criminal docket.

Once again we begin with cases in which the Court affirms.  When Justice Garman agrees, she more heavily questions the losing appellant, 2.44 to 0.79. 

Last week, we reviewed the academic literature studying oral argument analytics, and then compared the data for civil and criminal cases, both affirmances and reversals, to the outcome of those earlier studies.  This week, we’re digging deeper on that work.  For last week’s comparison, we aggregated outright reversals and split decisions: “affirmed in part, reversed in part.”  Now let’s disaggregate – compare outright reversals to split decisions.

Continue Reading Can You Predict a Split Decision in Civil Cases at the Illinois Supreme Court After Oral Argument?

Last time, we surveyed the academic research applying analytics techniques to appellate oral arguments and then reviewed the data for civil arguments at the Supreme Court since 2008.  In this post, we’re reviewing the data for the same period on the criminal side of the docket.

Continue Reading Can a Winner Be Predicted In Illinois Supreme Court Criminal Case Oral Arguments?

Today, we begin a new subject in our ongoing analytics study of the Court’s decision making – oral arguments.  Although the academic community has been producing analytics studies of appellate decision making for a century, the analytics study of oral arguments is a much more recent development.

Continue Reading Can a Winner Be Predicted In Illinois Supreme Court Civil Case Oral Arguments?

Yesterday, we addressed the court-wide data for the oral arguments in the criminal cases decided last year.  Now, let’s dig down to the Justice-by-Justice numbers.

Long-time readers will know that historically, the most active questioner on the Court during oral arguments tends to be Justice Thomas.  But last year on the criminal side, Justice Theis

Last time, we began reviewing the Court’s oral arguments in civil cases decided in 2018.  This time, we’re finishing that review.

Who was the heaviest questioner?  Once again, Justice Thomas led, asking 201 questions in all.  Dividing the arguments by segment, we find that Justice Theis was the highest questioner for appellants’ initial argument, asking