Once again, a dissent at the Appellate Court was a strong indicator that the Supreme Court was more likely to reverse in criminal cases between 2000 and 2009.  For the ten year period, 68.69% of cases with a dissenter below were reversed by the Supreme Court, while only 46.36% of cases decided unanimously at the Appellate Court were reversed.  Divided decision reversals led unanimous decision reversals in eight of ten years.  The numbers were frequently lopsided: 2001 (80% reversal of divided criminal decisions, 41.51% unanimous decisions); 2002 (71.43% to 44.44%); 2003 (77.78% to 37.5%); 2004 (88.89% to 52.27%); 2007 (87.5% to 65%); 2008 (69.23% to 48.65%) and 2009 (66.67% to 50%).

Join us back here next week as we examine the data for the years 2010 through 2020.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Matt Turner (no changes).

Just as was true in the 1990s, the presence of a dissenter at the Appellate Court was a mild-to-moderate indicator between 2000 and 2009 that a reversal was more likely in a civil case.  Across the ten years, 61.4% of cases with a dissenter at the Appellate Court were reversed by the Supreme Court, while 53.18% of cases decided unanimously below were reversed.

As we can see in Table 1781, the two data points didn’t diverge much year by year either; although dissenter-below cases were more likely to be reversed in eight of ten years, the difference was minor ini eight of those ten years.  The sole exceptions were 2006, when two-thirds of dissenter-below cases were reversed as compared to 35.14% of no-dissenter cases, and 2007, when once again two-thirds of dissenter-below cases were reversed and 46.15% of no-dissenter cases were.

Join us back here tomorrow as we review the data in criminal cases for thee same period.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Gary Todd (no changes).

A dissent below was a far stronger indicator of the likelihood of reversal at the Supreme Court in criminal cases between 1990 and 1999 than it was on the civil side.  For the entire period, 63.51% of cases with a dissent below ended in reversal at the Supreme Court.  Only 44.77% of cases decided unanimously below were reversed.  Dissent-below cases led no-dissent cases in seven of ten years: 1990 (66.67% dissent below reversed, 50% no dissent below reversed); 1991 (53.33% to 27.91%), 1992 (81.82% to 53.09%), 1995 (66.67% to 39.47%), 1997 (66.67% to 42.11%), 1998 (80% to 46.27%) and 1999 (71.43% to 45.65%).

Join us back here later this week as we review the data for the years 2000 through 2009.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Matt Turner (no changes).

For the next three weeks, we’ll be reviewing data closely related to our just-concluded look at dissents below and at the Supreme Court.  This time, we’re asking a related question – is the Supreme Court more likely to reverse when there’s a dissent below?  Or to put it another way – is there reason to believe that the Supreme Court hears cases with a dissent below because it agrees with the dissenter?  We begin with civil cases for the years 1990 through 1999, comparing two data points: yearly percentage of cases with a dissent below which resulted in a reversal, and yearly percentage of cases decided unanimously below which resulted in a reversal.

For these years, although the effect isn’t dramatic, it’s definitely there – reversal is more likely if there’s a dissent below.  In seven of the ten years from 1990 to 1999, the percentage of cases with a dissent below which resulted in reversal outpaced the no-dissent reversals.  Overall for the period, cases with a dissent at the Appellate Court had a reversal at the Supreme Court in 64.83% of cases, while cases with no dissent below had a reversal in 56.24%.  The data was especially lopsided in 1992 (66.67% dissent below, reversal above, 51.39% no dissent below, reversal above); 1993 (87.5% to 41.94%), 1995 (80% to 65.85%); 1996 (83.33% to 46.51%); 1997 (66.67% to 47.37%), and 1999 (66.67% to 50%).

Join us back here next time as we review the data for criminal cases in the same period.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Gary Todd (no changes).

In criminal cases between 2005 and 2020, dissents at the Appellate Court were more common than divided decisions in criminal cases in seven of sixteen years: 2005, 2008, 2010-2011, 2014-2015, 2018.  In 2007, 2016 and 2020, the percentages were identical.  In 2006, 28% of criminal cases had a dissent at the Supreme Court to 22% at the Appellate Court.  In 2009, 23.08% had a dissent at the Supreme Court to 11.54% at the Appellate Court.  In 2012, 30.3% had a dissent at the Supreme Court while 27.27% had a dissent below.  The following year, the margin increased – 26.32% at the Supreme Court, 13.16% at the Appellate Court.  In 2017, 64.29% of criminal cases had a dissenter at the Supreme Court.  Half had a dissenter at the Appellate Court.  In 2019, 38.1% had a dissenter at the Supreme Court, while 19.05% had a dissent at the Appellate Court.

Join us back here next week as we turn our attention to a related issue.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Darsham Simha (no changes).

Last week, we reviewed the year-by-year data comparing the dissent rate at the Appellate Court to the percentage of divided civil decisions at the Supreme Court, investigating whether dissent below signals a higher likelihood of a divided decision.  This week, we’re looking at the data for the years 2005 through 2020, civil first.

In eight of the sixteen years, the dissent rate at the Appellate Court was higher than the divided decision rate at the Supreme Court: 2005, 2007-2011, 2015 and 2017.  The rates were identical in 2020 – 21.875% dissent at the Appellate Court and divided decisions at the Supreme Court.  In 2006, only 24.49% of cases at the Appellate Court had dissents, while 40.82% of those cases were divided at the Supreme Court.  In 2012, 45% of cases had divided decisions at the Supreme Court and 30% had dissenters below.  In 2013, 41.18% of Supreme Court cases had divided decisions, while 29.41% had dissenters below.  In 2014, the numbers were still close – 22.22% divided at the Supreme Court, 14.81% at the Appellate Court.  In 2016, 25% of cases were divided at the Supreme Court, while 17.86% were divided at the Appellate Court.  In 2018, 36.36% of cases were divided at the Supreme Court, but 22.73% had dissenters below.  In 2019, 29.41% of cases had dissenters at the Supreme Court, while 20.59% had dissents at the Appellate Court.

Join us back here next time as we review the data for the criminal side of the docket.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Scott McLeod (no changes).

We determined last time that there was relatively little connection between the rate of dissent at the Appellate Court and the likelihood of division at the Supreme Court in civil cases.  This time, we’re looking at criminal cases for the same years: 1990 through 2004.

The connection between dissent at the Appellate Court and Supreme Court was even weaker in criminal cases.  The rate of dissent at the Appellate Court was higher than division at the Supreme Court in only three of the fifteen years between 1990 and 2004: 1990-1991 and 2004.  On the other hand, in 1993, only 2.33% of criminal cases had a dissent below, while 16.28% had a divided vote at the Supreme Court.  The following year, the margin was 15.38% in Appellate Court dissent, 38.46% division at the Supreme Court.  In 1995, only 3.8% of cases had a dissent at the Appellate Court, while 40.51% had dissenters at the Supreme Court.  The following year, 1.9% of criminal cases had a dissent below, while 31.48% had a dissent at the Supreme Court.  In 1997, 9.5% at the Appellate Court to 39.68% at the Supreme Court.  In 1998, 6.9% at the Appellate Court to 30.56% at the Supreme Court.  The following year, 13.21% of criminal cases had a dissent below to 54.72% at the Supreme Court.  In 2000, only 6.98% of criminal cases had a dissent below, while 73.26% had a dissent at the Supreme Court.  In 2001, 8.6% at the Appellate Court, 39.66% at the Supreme Court.  In 2002, 10% at the Appellate Court, 45.71% at the Supreme Court.  In 2003, 13.85% at the Appellate Court, 46.15% at the Supreme Court.

Join us back here next week as we address the data for the years 2005 through 2020.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Gary Todd (no changes).

Today and next week, we turn our attention to a new issue – does dissent at the Appellate Court signal likely dissent at the Supreme Court?  We begin with the Court’s civil decisions between 1990 and 2004.

For the most part, the answer is no.  The dissent rate at the Appellate Court in the civil cases decided by the Supreme Court only exceeded the likelihood of a dissent at the Supreme Court in four of the fifteen years between 1990 and 2004: 1990-1991, 1995 and 2003.

For most of the rest of these years, dissent was considerably more common at the Supreme Court than it was at the Appellate Court in the court’s cases.  In 1992, 32.6% of the Court’s civil cases had a dissent to 22.8% of those cases below.  In 1993, the margin was fifteen percentage points, and in 1994, that grew to seventeen points.  In 1996, once again the margin between dissents at the Supreme Court and dissents in the same cases at the Appellate Court was seventeen points.  The following year, only 9.5% of the Court’s civil cases had a dissenter below, but 50.79% of those same cases had at least one dissenter at the Supreme Court.  The margin was nearly as great in 1998 – 15.49% at the Appellate Court, 52.11% division at the Supreme Court.  In 2000, 42.1% of cases were divided at the Supreme Court, while only 21.1% drew a dissent below.  In 2001, 7.8% had a dissent below to 25.49% at the Supreme Court.

Join us back here next time as we review the data for the years 1990 to 2004 on the criminal side of the docket.

Image courtesy of Flickr by David Wilson (no changes).

This time, we’re finishing our review of the data for amicus briefs and won-loss records overall for the years 2005 through 2020.

Appellants in insurance law cases won 58.82% of their cases to 41.18% for appellees.  Amici fared far worse – appellants’ amici won 20%, while appellees’ amici won only one-third.  In property law cases, appellants won 75% to 25% for appellees.  Appellants’ amici won all their cases; there were no appellees’ amici.

Appellants won 80% of cases involving secured transactions.  Appellants’ amici won only one-third of their cases, while appellees’ amici won all of their cases.  Appellants and appellees in tax cases evenly split their cases, 50-50.  Amici were the same: appellants’ amici 50%, appellees’ amici 50%.

In tort law cases, appellants won 63.16% during these years while appellees won 36.84%.  Appellants’ amici won far more often – 63.16% to 36.84% for appellees.  Appellants in wills and estates cases won two-thirds of all cases.  There were no appellants’ amici.  Appellees’ amici lost all their cases.

Appellants in workers’ comp cases won 52.38% to 47.62% for appellees.  Appellants’ amici won all their cases, while appellees’ amici won only 16.67%.

Join us back here later this week as we address a new issue.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Vivek Jena (no changes).

This week, we’re comparing the won-loss percentage for appellants’ and appellees’ amici by area of law to the won-loss overall for the years 2005 through 2020.

Appellants in arbitration cases won 60% of their cases.  Appellants’ amici won all their cases, while respondents’ amici won none of theirs.

Appellants in civil procedure cases won 63.1% of their cases to 36.9% for appellees.  Appellants’ amici won 76.19% of their cases, while appellees’ amici won only one-third.  In commercial law cases, appellants won 70% to 30% for appellees.  Appellants’ amici won all their cases.  There were no appellees’ amici in commercial law cases.

Appellants won 57.97% of their cases in constitutional law to 42.03% for appellees.  Appellants’ amici won 69.44% of their cases, while appellees’ amici won only 14.29%.

In domestic relations cases, appellants have won 62.86% of their cases to 37.14% for appellees.  Appellants’ amici have won 85.71% of their cases, while appellees’ amici have won only 28.57% of the time.  In election law cases, appellants have won 53.33% to 46.67% for appellees.  Appellees’ amici have lost all their cases.  There have been no appellants’ amici.

Appellants in election law cases won 53.33% of their cases to 46.67% for appellees.  Appellants in employment law cases won 70.59% of their cases to 29.41% for appellees.  Appellants’ amici won 71.43% of their cases to 16.67% for appellees’ amici.

Two-thirds of environmental law cases were won by appellees.  Appellants’ amici won all their cases, while appellees’ amici won none of theirs.  Appellants in government and administrative law cases won 46.39% to 53.61% for appellees.  Appellants’ amici, on the other hand, won 52.27% to 53.61% for appellees’ amici.

Join us back here next time as we review the rest of the data for these years.

Image courtesy of Flickr by Stevan Sheets (no changes).