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Yesterday, we determined that a dissent below, all things being equal, will lead to at least a slightly more active oral argument for appellees.  The data for appellants is more variable – the averages are virtually identical, but the numbers vary widely from case to case.  So what’s the answer for criminal cases?

Between 2008

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For the past several weeks, we’ve been comparing the data on the number and sequence of the Illinois Supreme Court’s questions at oral argument to various variables, searching for possible predictors of particularly active oral arguments. This week, we’ll be asking whether the area of law involved in a case impacts the level of questioning.

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Yesterday, we looked at the likelihood that the first question to each side at oral argument in civil cases came from a Justice who would write an opinion – either the majority, a special concurrence or a dissent. Today, we turn our attention to the Court’s criminal cases between 2008 and 2016.

Beginning with appellants,

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Today, we turn our analysis of the Illinois Supreme Court’s oral arguments between 2008 and 2016 to a new question: how likely is it that the Justice who asks the first question in a civil case is writing an opinion?

In Table 433 below, we report the percentage of instances in civil cases in which