Archives: Data Analytics

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What Are Justice Theis’ Question Patterns When She Disagrees With the Majority in Criminal Cases?

This time, we’re reviewing the data for Justice Theis’ question patterns in criminal cases. When Justice Theis agrees with the majority in an affirmance, she follows the expected pattern, averaging 3.22 questions to appellants and only 1.38 to appellees.  However, she breaks from the pattern in reversals, more heavily questioning the winner – 3.02 to … Continue Reading

What Are Justice Theis’ Question Patterns When She Disagrees With the Majority in Civil Cases?

This week, we’re reviewing Justice Theis’ history in oral arguments in civil cases.  Having established that the party which gets more questions at argument overall is likely to lose, we’re trying to determine (1) whether each individual Justice follows that same pattern when she or he agrees with the majority; and (2) when he or … Continue Reading

What Are Chief Justice Burke’s Question Patterns When She Disagrees With the Majority in Criminal Cases?

In criminal cases where the Chief Justice is voting with the majority, she tends to question the appellant more heavily regardless of the result – a break with the expected pattern.  When joining an affirmance since the Court first started posting oral argument videos, she has averaged 1.71 questions to appellants and 1.08 to appellees.  … Continue Reading

What Are Chief Justice Burke’s Question Patterns When She Disagrees With the Majority in Civil Cases?

For the past few weeks, we’ve been reviewing the oral argument data on individual Justices, trying to determine whether it’s possible to predict from the analytics whether a particular Justice is likely to dissent.  This week, we’re looking at the numbers for Chief Justice Burke. When the Chief Justice is in the majority, we see … Continue Reading

What Are Justice Karmeier’s Question Patterns When He Disagrees With the Majority in Criminal Cases?

Today, we’re reviewing the pattern of Justice Karmeier’s questions in oral argument on criminal cases. When Justice Karmeier joins the majority of a simple affirmance or reversal, his questions show the expected pattern – he tends to more heavily question the losing side.  In affirmances, he averages 1.88 questions to appellants and 0.68 to appellees.  … Continue Reading

What Are Justice Karmeier’s Question Patters When He Disagrees With the Majority in Civil Cases?

For the past few weeks, we’ve been reviewing the oral argument questioning of individual Justices, attempting to answer this question: if the Court as a whole is likely to more heavily question the party who will lose the case, what about Justices planning to dissent from that result?  This week, we’re looking at Justice Karmeier’s … Continue Reading

What Are Justice Kilbride’s Question Patterns in Criminal Cases When He Disagrees With the Majority?

Yesterday, we reviewed the data on Justice Kilbride’s oral arguments in civil cases.  Today, we’re looking at the criminal cases. As you can see from the Table below, Justice Kilbride asks very few questions in criminal oral arguments.  When he’s in the majority of an affirmance, he averages 0.48 questions to appellants, 0.3 to appellees.  … Continue Reading

What Are Justice Kilbride’s Question Patterns in Civil Cases When He Disagrees With the Majority?

A few weeks ago, we established that court-wide, the party which is likely to lose tends to get the most questions in oral argument.  Now, we’re investigating individual Justices’ records – when the Justice agrees with the majority, does he or she follow the usual pattern, and when he or she doesn’t agree, does the … Continue Reading

What Are Justice Garman’s Question Patterns When She Disagrees With the Majority in Criminal Cases?

Last time, we reviewed Justice Garman’s record in oral arguments in civil cases, both when she agreed with the majority and when she didn’t.  Today, we’re reviewing the criminal docket. Once again we begin with cases in which the Court affirms.  When Justice Garman agrees, she more heavily questions the losing appellant, 2.44 to 0.79.  … Continue Reading

What Are Justice Garman’s Question Patterns When She Disagrees With the Majority in Civil Cases?

For the last two weeks, we’ve been looking at the court-wide data for questions at oral argument.  We discussed the academic research into oral argument questions, which demonstrates that at the U.S. Supreme Court, the party which will lose the case generally gets the most questions.  We then looked at the data for the Illinois … Continue Reading

Can You Predict a Split Decision in Civil Cases at the Illinois Supreme Court After Oral Argument?

Last week, we reviewed the academic literature studying oral argument analytics, and then compared the data for civil and criminal cases, both affirmances and reversals, to the outcome of those earlier studies.  This week, we’re digging deeper on that work.  For last week’s comparison, we aggregated outright reversals and split decisions: “affirmed in part, reversed … Continue Reading

Can You Predict a Split Decision in Criminal Cases at the Illinois Supreme Court After Oral Argument?

Yesterday, we disaggregated the data on oral arguments in civil cases where there is a partial or complete reversal.  Today, we’re looking at the criminal cases. First, we review the data for outright reversals – did the appellants or appellees average more questions per argument?  We report the data in Table 1673 below.  In ten … Continue Reading

Can a Winner Be Predicted In Illinois Supreme Court Criminal Case Oral Arguments?

Last time, we surveyed the academic research applying analytics techniques to appellate oral arguments and then reviewed the data for civil arguments at the Supreme Court since 2008.  In this post, we’re reviewing the data for the same period on the criminal side of the docket. Since the Court began posting arguments in 2008 through … Continue Reading

Can a Winner Be Predicted In Illinois Supreme Court Civil Case Oral Arguments?

Today, we begin a new subject in our ongoing analytics study of the Court’s decision making – oral arguments.  Although the academic community has been producing analytics studies of appellate decision making for a century, the analytics study of oral arguments is a much more recent development. The earliest study appears to be Sarah Levien … Continue Reading

What Kinds of Civil Constitutional Law Cases Does the Supreme Court Decide (Part 2 – 2005-2019)?

Yesterday, we began our review of the Supreme Court’s civil constitutional law cases from 1990 to 2019.  Between 2005 and 2019, the Supreme Court decided 64 civil constitutional law cases.  Thirty-three of the Court’s constitutional law cases involved challenges to state government actions, and these cases were evenly distributed across the fifteen years.  Thirteen cases … Continue Reading

What Kinds of Civil Constitutional Law Cases Does the Supreme Court Decide (Part 1 – 1990-2004)?

For the past two weeks, we’ve been digging deeper on the Supreme Court’s caseload, dividing the cases by area of law into sub-areas.  This week, we’re looking at the Court’s docket of civil constitutional law cases – what kinds of cases make it to the Supreme Court?  We’ll divide the cases into four categories: cases … Continue Reading

What Kinds of Insurance Cases Does the Supreme Court Decide (Part 2 – 2005-2019)?

Between 2005 and 2019, the Supreme Court has decided 32 insurance cases.  Twelve of those cases involved coverage issues.  Eight involved defenses to coverage.  Six cases involved exclusions to coverage.  There were three cases involving regulatory issues, two “other” and none involving excess coverage. Join us back here next week as we turn our attention … Continue Reading

What Kinds of Insurance Cases Does the Supreme Court Decide (Part 1 – 1990-2004)?

Last week, we drilled down on the Court’s tort docket, reviewing the sub-areas of tort law that the Court’s cases have been drawn from over the past thirty years.  This week, we’re doing the same thing for the Court’s insurance law cases. We divide the insurance cases into seven categories: Coverage (and the insurer’s duties … Continue Reading

What Kinds of Tort Cases Does the Supreme Court Decide (Part 2 – 2005-2019)?

Last time, we began taking another look at the Court’s tort cases since 1990 – specifically, what issues within the field of tort law has the Court been interested in?  This time, we’re reviewing the data for the years 2005 through 2019. Tort cases have been significantly less common on the Court’s docket during this … Continue Reading

What Kinds of Tort Cases Does The Supreme Court Decide (Part 1 – 1990-2004)?

For the past few months, we’ve been looking at the Court’s decision record and the individual Justices’ voting records in various civil and criminal areas of law.  This week, we’re beginning a deeper dive – dividing those areas of law into discrete sub-issues and tracking where the Court has been drawing its cases from. We … Continue Reading

How Have Justices Theis and Neville Voted in Domestic Relations Cases?

Justice Theis has participated in 20 domestic relations cases since joining the Court.  She has voted for defendants in nine of those cases and for plaintiffs 11 times.  Between 2011 and 2015, she supported defendants in seven of fifteen cases.  From 2016 to 2019, she voted for defendants in two of five cases. Six of … Continue Reading

How Has Chief Justice Burke Voted in Domestic Relations Cases?

Chief Justice Burke has participated in 33 domestic relations cases.  She has voted for defendants’ position in 14 cases and against defendants 19 times.  From 2007 to 2009, she voted for defendants in three of nine cases.  From 2010 to 2014, she voted for defendants in seven of fifteen cases.  From 2015 to 2019, she … Continue Reading

How Has Justice Karmeier Voted in Domestic Relations Cases?

Since joining the Court, Justice Karmeier has participated in 37 domestic relations cases.  He has voted for defendants in 18 cases and against them 19 times. Between 2005 and 2009, Justice Karmeier voted for defendants in six of thirteen cases.  Between 2010 and 2014, Justice Karmeier voted for defendants in eight of fifteen cases.  Between … Continue Reading

How Did Justice Thomas Vote in Domestic Relations Cases?

As we continue our review of the Justices’ voting records, next up is the recently retired Justice Thomas. Between joining the Court and the end of 2019, Justice Thomas participated in 53 domestic relations cases.  He voted with defendants in 22 of those cases and against them 31 times.  Between 2001 and 2005, he voted … Continue Reading
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